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Lackey OVER-achieved

John Lackey got a 5-year, 82.5 million dollar contract from the Red Sox, and he’s given them exactly what they should have expected. I’m not saying the Red Sox got their money’s worth. I’m saying they overpaid, and in return, Lackey has slightly over-achieved.  Fans might not believe that’s true. They hear about a guy who’s going to be paid 16.5 million dollars a year, and they think: “That’s the kind of money usually reserved for top of the rotation guys. He must be right up there with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester.”

Well, they were half right.

Problem is, Lackey has almost never been the guy his reputation suggests he is. He’s a workhorse, they say, but he’s thrown over 210 innings only twice in his career. He’s a proven winner, they say, but he’s won more than 14 games just once in his career. He’s a fierce competitor, they say, and they may be right, but so is Josh Beckett, they say, and where has that gotten him this year?

Lackey signed with the Red Sox after coming off seasons with 11 and 12 wins. So, while his ERA has ballooned along with his arrival in the American League East, he already has 12 wins, and if he gets to 15, it’ll be the second most in his career. Forget the ERA. No matter how you shake it down, he’s a 12-to-15 game winner. Basically, the guy had one monster season in which he went 19-9 with a 3.01 ERA. He was great in 2007. In his other 8 big league seasons, he’s been the guy you’ve seen this year, and he’ll likely be that guy for the next four years while he collects the remaining 63.8 million dollars on his contract.

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